Twindig Housing Market Index (HMI) - 12 February 22

The Twindig Housing Market Index ummed and erred this week, and eventually ticked down by 0.2% to 86.0. Investor confidence appeared torn and conflicted between robust results and trading updates from housebuilders Barratt, Bellway and Redrow, further, albeit slowing, house price growth in January reported by the Halifax and continued to shortages of housing stock in the broader market. As a result, confidence in the housebuilders moved up by 3%, but fell by 2% for estate agents. Housebuilders have much more control over their supply of homes than estate agents. However, in our view, the stock shortages are on the turn and we are hopeful that 2022 will see a traditional spring selling season.

For a second-week, investor confidence in the housing market was unphased by the anticipated cost of living rises, and news that mortgage rates had bottomed out did not attract many headlines.

The latest RICS housing market survey reported that fewer agents were reporting a reduction in new instructions and the number of market appraisals also appears to be rising. This is welcome news for home buyers and estate agents alike and as already noted gives us confidence that we will see a more normal spring selling season this year.

We were also pleased to see that the housing market does not appear to be seeing any long term impact of the extended stamp duty holiday. Our concern homebuyers had pulled forward a significant number of housing transactions and that this would lead to a lull in the first few months of 2022. It appears, fortunately, that our concerns, with hindsight, were unfounded and we are happy to have got that particular prediction wrong.